Revolutionizing Diabetes Management: How Artificial Intelligence Predicts Your Blood Sugar to Optimize Health

We’re Not Making Year-End Predictions—We’re Making Them All Year Long! - One Drop

Read time: 5 minutes

  • Blood glucose (BG) forecasts by One Drop function like a weather forecast, enabling members with diabetes to look ahead at future BG levels and prevent problems.
  • Research shows that receiving glucose predictions increased a person’s likelihood of logging glucose values in the One Drop app and maintaining glucose levels within a healthy range after 12 weeks.
  • One Drop’s data wealth reached 45 billion in 2022; the precision health company expects to surpass 50 billion data points by the summer of 2023.

Since the launch of our blood glucose (BG) forecasts feature in 2018, One Drop’s predictive capabilities have expanded. We can only do so much by looking back. But, by helping One Drop members look ahead and understand what to do next, it’s like having a collision avoidance system for your diabetes and overall health that can offer enormous peace of mind.

In 2019, we expanded the availability of glucose forecasts and made them as helpful as a weather forecast.

We rolled out blood glucose forecasts in 2018 for people with type 2 diabetes who have not used insulin in the last 90 days. By Fall 2019, we could give forecasts to anyone with type 2 diabetes, including those on oral medications or insulin regimens (i.e., basal, bolus) and people with gestational diabetes or prediabetes who monitor their blood sugar. So, if you’re a One Drop Premium member with one of these conditions, we only need you to log one blood sugar reading in the app to get started!

Healthcare AI - Blood Sugar Prediction - Blood Sugar Management - Diabetes Care - One Drop       Healthcare AI - Blood Sugar Prediction - Blood Sugar Management - Diabetes Care - One Drop
A pop-up will appear when a new forecast is available, citing your expected blood sugar trend up to eight hours in the future. For example, "Glucose to go up, but not too high, in the next 3 hours." iOS members can expand the notification to view a more in-depth forecast that includes the general trend (rising or falling), percent in range, and a graph of projected future glucose levels based on your recently logged glucose values and other important health data, such as food and activity. 

We also announced a new algorithm for CGM users at DTM 2019.

At the 19th Annual Diabetes Technology Meeting (DTM) in Bethesda, Maryland, One Drop announced our development of a model to accurately predict glucose levels for people using a continuous glucose monitor (CGM). Peer-reviewed outcomes presented at DTM 2019 revealed our method accurately predicted blood glucose levels within 30 mg/dL of the CGM-measured values up to 120 minutes in advance; at 30 minutes, predictions were within 30 mg/dL more than 97% of the time; at 60 minutes, 78% of were within 30 mg/dL. This capability is not yet member-facing.

2019 measured in AI numbers

  • 500% growth in the number of members receiving forecasts
  • 1500% growth in total forecasts delivered daily
  • 80% of members who receive forecasts provide feedback
  • 93% of member feedback is positive

  • In 2020, we improved the accuracy of our AI and developed new forecasts.

    We released additional results for our CGM-based glucose predictions at the International Conference on Advanced Technologies and Treatments for Diabetes in Madrid, Spain. These findings demonstrated increased accuracy of direct glucose, hypoglycemia, and hyperglycemia predictions across multiple periods.

    Four months later, One Drop presented long-term outcomes forecasts for diabetes-related biomarkers (A1C, blood pressure, and weight), along with overnight hypoglycemia predictions for CGM users at the 80th Annual American Diabetes Association Virtual Scientific Sessions.

    Currently, CGM-based glucose predictions and long-term outcomes forecasts are not member-facing; however, we hope to integrate these capabilities into the One Drop user experience.

    In 2021, we launched blood pressure insights and surpassed 25 billion data points. 

    May 2021 was an exciting time for One Drop. We announced the receipt of Conformité Européenne (CE) marking for our Blood Glucose Prediction Analysis Engine-1 (i.e., 8-hour blood glucose forecasts) and Blood Pressure Trend and Analysis Engine-1 (i.e., blood pressure insights feature). New data-driven insights for people managing high blood pressure meant One Drop Premium members could receive in-app messages with blood pressure trends, behavioral reinforcements, and alerts for hypertensive crises.

    Our growing data wealth is critical to the functionality and success of One Drop AI. By June 2021, we had surpassed 25 billion longitudinal data points spanning 75 biomarkers. This milestone aligned with the 14th International Conference on Advanced Technologies & Treatments for Diabetes (ATTD), where One Drop presented published results demonstrating improved accuracy of outcomes forecasts from short-term CGM data.

    We also used artificial intelligence to combat heart disease.

    In Fall 2021, One Drop announced the release of a digital, AI-enabled cardiovascular disease (CVD) prevention module—the first co-developed digital product to emerge from our collaboration with Bayer in support of our expansion into a wide range of therapeutic areas. Fast Company honored our solution in their World Changing Ideas Awards the following year. 

    In 2022, One Drop AI helped members improve diabetes outcomes.

    In July 2022, we were pleased to announce outcomes from a retrospective cohort study published in the Journal of Medical Internet Research (JMIR) on the effects of our novel AI-powered BG forecasting feature, linking its use to better engagement and diabetes outcomes for members with type 2 diabetes (T2D). Receiving glucose predictions increased a member’s likelihood of logging glucose values in the app and maintaining glucose levels within a healthy range after 12 weeks.

    2022 measured in AI numbers

    • 10 billion new data points logged by One Drop members
    • 45 billion data points to date (total data wealth)
    • 2 million glucose predictions delivered to members with T2D
    • 8.5 million all-time glucose predictions

    Our AI future is bright.

    There is so much more to come! As of today, we are quickly approaching 50 billion data points. We are thrilled to forge ahead with predictions, insights, and forecasts in ways that will enable you to take charge of your diabetes in 2023 and beyond.

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    Dan Goldner, PhD
    Apr 24, 2023

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